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Tariffs as a Household Tax — Outcome

Reporting and findings

  1. reported

    The Budget Lab modeled the tariffs then in effect as raising the short-run price level by 1.8 percent and reducing average household purchasing power by about $2,400 in 2025 dollars.

People and organizations

Money trail

  1. lossSuperseded August 2025 purchasing-power model per average householdabout $2,400 per average household in the superseded August 2025 model
    Loss or cost borne by
    U.S. households
    estimated · 2025-08-01 · projected · central scenarioRead source record
    Calculation detailsPopulation U.S. Customs and Border Protection; U.S. importers; U.S. households; U.S. producers modeled to gain output in protected sectorsPeriod 2025-01-01 to 2025-12-31Projection horizon 2025-12-31Basis Budget Lab mapped the tariff configuration in effect on August 1, 2025 to average household consumption in 2025 dollars.Limits Not a realized bill or current-policy estimate. Later policy changes, substitutions, the Supreme Court ruling, and replacement tariffs materially changed the policy configuration.