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Brown estimates $9.65–12.07 billion for Yemen and wider Middle East operations in 2023–2025

Reporting and findings

  1. estimate

    Linda Bilmes estimates US regional military activity from October 7, 2023 through September 2025 at $9.65–12.07 billion, including Yemen operations and Operation Midnight Hammer against Iran. This is separate from the $21.7 billion Israel military aid estimate.

  2. reported

    Bilmes describes Trump's Operation Rough Rider campaign and his May 6, 2025 announcement suspending US air operations in Yemen, as well as the June 2025 Midnight Hammer strikes.

Summary and current status

One retrospective range spanning both administrations; it includes Yemen operations and June 2025 Iran strikes.

Attributed estimate; period and accounting scope stated in each measure

People and organizations

  • Donald J. TrumpPresident directing Rough Rider and Midnight Hammer during the study period

Money trail

  1. public costBrown regional cost range: lower endpoint$9.65 billion
    Estimated public spending source
    United States government
    Loss or cost borne by
    U.S. taxpayers
    estimated · 2025-09-30 · observedRead source record
    Calculation detailsPopulation US military operations in Yemen and wider Middle East, October 2023–September 2025; Biden and TrumpPeriod 2023-10-07 to 2025-09-30Basis Use the lower endpoint of one retrospective source range, not a forecast scenario. Both endpoints describe the same spending population. The range includes Yemen and June 2025 Iran operations; do not add those components again.Limits Incomplete public accounting and alternative cost assumptions generate the range. Endpoints must never be summed. Excludes the distinct 2026 Epic Fury campaign and later operations; the period is not Trump-only.
  2. public costBrown regional cost range: upper endpoint$12.07 billion
    Estimated public spending source
    United States government
    Loss or cost borne by
    U.S. taxpayers
    estimated · 2025-09-30 · observedRead source record
    Calculation detailsPopulation US military operations in Yemen and wider Middle East, October 2023–September 2025; Biden and TrumpPeriod 2023-10-07 to 2025-09-30Basis Use the upper endpoint of one retrospective source range, not a forecast scenario. Both endpoints describe the same spending population. The range includes Yemen and June 2025 Iran operations; do not add those components again.Limits Incomplete public accounting and alternative cost assumptions generate the range. Endpoints must never be summed. Excludes the distinct 2026 Epic Fury campaign and later operations; the period is not Trump-only.