Arms-control analysis warns strikes may worsen weaponization incentives and diplomacy
Reporting and findings
- reported
The Arms Control Association assessed that although the U.S. and Israeli strikes damaged Iran's nuclear infrastructure, they could increase incentives for weaponization, leave Iran able to reconstitute its program, and undermine U.S. credibility in renewed diplomacy; the assessment did not claim Iran had made a weaponization decision.
- Arms Control Association: Iran's Nuclear Program After the Strikes: What's Left and What's Next?Post-strike technical assessment and diplomacy section
- Associated Press: Iran's president orders country to suspend cooperation with UN nuclear watchdog IAEAPost-strike technical assessment and diplomacy section
Summary and current status
The assessment is a forecast about incentives and reconstitution, not evidence that Iran decided to build a weapon.
Independent risk assessment
People and organizations
- Donald J. Trumppresident ordering the U.S. strikes
- Islamic Republic of Iranstate whose nuclear incentives were assessed
- Operation Midnight Hammerstrikes assessed for downstream effects
Relationships in this file
- Donald J. Trumporder assessed for downstream nonproliferation riskOperation Midnight Hammer