Tiny Red HandsBack

Yale models household and Treasury effects of Trump's 10% China tariff

Date
2025-02-05
Entry type
modeled-economic-impact
Current status
Modeled estimate, not observed loss
Last reviewed
2026-09-03

The modeled payer is U.S. households and importers; projected federal revenue is not a realized benefit to Xi or Trump.

Entities and roles

Relationships in this file

  1. Donald J. Trumpcounterpart whose country's imports Trump tariffedXi Jinping

Money trail

  1. revenueModeled ten-year conventional federal revenueabout $400 billion nominal USD
    Projected revenue source
    U.S. importers
    Projected revenue recipient
    United States Treasury
    Financially affected
    U.S. households and firms
    projected · 2025-02-05 · projected · central scenarioPopulation U.S. federal customs revenue paid by importers; no personal recipient or beneficiary is inferredPeriod 2025-02-05 to 2035-02-05Projection horizon 2035-02-05Basis Budget Lab conventional ten-year estimate: U.S. importers are the legal payers, federal customs revenue is the public recipient, and households and firms may bear economic incidence through prices and trade responses; no personal beneficiary is identified.Limits The source says revenue is lower after accounting for the modeled GDP reduction; policy changes and trade responses can materially alter collections.Open cited evidence
  2. lossModeled average annual household loss$223 2024 USD per household per year
    Loss or cost borne by
    U.S. households
    projected · 2025-02-05 · projected · central scenarioPopulation Average U.S. household; modeled payer through higher prices and reduced disposable income from the 10% China tariffPeriod 2025-02-05 to 2026-02-05Projection horizon 2026-02-05Basis Budget Lab short-run tariff-incidence model: importers remit the tariff into federal customs revenue, while higher prices transmit the modeled loss to U.S. households; assumes announced Chinese retaliation and no Federal Reserve price offset and identifies no personal beneficiary.Limits Modeled central estimate, not an observed household bill; pass-through, substitution, retaliation, and monetary-policy responses can change the result.Open cited evidence

Claims and evidence

  1. estimateestimate

    The Budget Lab modeled Trump's 10% tariff on Chinese imports as a 0.14% short-run price increase and an average $223 annual loss of household purchasing power, with a disproportionate income-share burden on lower-income households; importers legally pay the tariff into federal customs revenue, and the model separately estimated about $400 billion in conventional federal revenue over ten years before dynamic effects, with no personal recipient or beneficiary inferred.