Tiny Red HandsBack

Later Nansen study estimates $TRUMP losses across likely retail wallets

Date
2026-08-27
Entry type
crypto-market-outcomes
Current status
About 1 million likely retail wallets estimated underwater by August 27, 2026
Last reviewed
2026-09-03

The 2026 study estimated roughly 1 million likely retail Solana DEX wallets were underwater, with $3.2 billion in combined losses and about $400 million realized.

Entities and roles

Relationships in this file

  1. Donald J. Trump$TRUMP operator contact linked to later holder outcomesBill Zanker

Money trail

  1. other$TRUMP drawdown from reported peak to all-time lowapproximately 98.1%
    Measured subject
    $TRUMP token market price
    observed · 2026-08-13 · observedPopulation $TRUMP market price from the Public Citizen-reported $73.43 January 19, 2025 peak to the $1.37 August 13, 2026 lowPeriod 2025-01-19 to 2026-08-13Basis Calculated ($73.43 − $1.37) ÷ $73.43 × 100 = 98.1343%, rounded to 98.1%, from the exact peak and low price observations and dates reported by Public Citizen.Limits A peak-to-low market-price change is not realized investor loss, market-cap decline, or a measure of every holder's cost basis; the published price inputs may aggregate exchange markets.Open cited evidence
  2. lossEstimated losses among underwater likely retail $TRUMP wallets$3.2 billion
    Loss or cost borne by
    Roughly 1 million losing likely retail Solana DEX wallets
    estimated · 2026-08-27 · observedPopulation Roughly 1 million likely retail Solana DEX wallets Nansen classified as underwater on $TRUMP by August 27, 2026Period 2025-01-17 to 2026-08-27Basis Use Nansen's $3.2 billion combined loss estimate for its likely-retail losing-wallet population; approximately $400 million realized through sales is a nested subset.Limits Most of the estimate was unrealized and prices can change; scope excludes other venues and is methodologically incompatible with Inca Digital's May 2025 population, so the values are not added.Open cited evidence
  3. lossEstimated realized subset of likely retail $TRUMP lossesabout $400 million
    Loss or cost borne by
    Likely retail Solana DEX realized-loss wallets
    realized · 2026-08-27 · observedPopulation Realized-loss subset within Nansen's roughly 1 million underwater likely retail Solana DEX walletsPeriod 2025-01-17 to 2026-08-27Basis Use Public Citizen's report that about $400 million of Nansen's $3.2 billion combined likely-retail loss estimate had been realized through sales as the nested realized subset.Limits Rounded subset estimate; it must not be added to the $3.2 billion total, and the source did not publish complete trade matching, wallet clustering, or recipient allocation.Open cited evidence
  4. lossLikely retail $TRUMP wallets underwaterroughly 1 million of about 1.6 million wallets
    Loss or cost borne by
    Roughly 1 million likely retail Solana DEX wallets
    estimated · 2026-08-27 · observedPopulation Likely retail wallets that bought $TRUMP on Solana decentralized exchanges in Nansen's Public Citizen analysisPeriod 2025-01-17 to 2026-08-27Basis Use Nansen's rounded estimate of roughly 1 million underwater wallets among about 1.6 million likely retail Solana DEX buyer wallets. Wallets are not people or unique beneficial owners.Limits Rounded third-party estimate limited to Solana decentralized exchanges; Public Citizen did not publish the complete clustering or cost-basis code, and one owner may control multiple wallets.Open cited evidence

Claims and evidence

  1. estimateestimate

    Public Citizen reported that Nansen filtered for likely retail wallets and found roughly 1 million of about 1.6 million wallets that bought $TRUMP on Solana decentralized exchanges were underwater by August 27, 2026, down a combined $3.2 billion; about $400 million of that loss had been realized. It also recorded a $73.43 January 19, 2025 peak and $1.37 August 13, 2026 low, a calculated 98.1% drawdown.