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Tax Foundation projects $840 per household in tariff taxes for 2026

Date
2026-09-02
Entry type
economic estimate
Current status
Projected 2026 household tax burden

A calendar-year tax-burden forecast.

Entities and roles

Money trail

  1. public cost2026 household tariff tax burdenabout $840 USD per household
    Loss or cost borne by
    Average U.S. household in the model
    projected · 2026-09-02 · projected · central scenarioPopulation Average U.S. household, not an average tax filing unitPeriod 2026-01-01 to 2026-12-31Projection horizon 2026-12-31Basis Use the published household tax-burden projection. The tariff model uses Census trade data, CBO forecasts, 10% noncompliance, a -2 elasticity and income/payroll offsets.Limits Not observed spending or total welfare loss. Excludes higher-priced alternatives and reduced choice. The household allocation is modeled, not an empirical retail pass-through measurement; policy can change.Open cited evidence

Claims and evidence

  1. estimateestimate

    Tax Foundation's tracker, updated September 2, 2026, projects an average $840 increase in tariff taxes per U.S. household for calendar 2026.