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CBO estimates the five-week shutdown left $3 billion unrecovered and delayed $18 billion in spending

Reporting and findings

  1. estimate

    CBO estimated that the five-week partial shutdown delayed about $18 billion in federal discretionary spending. It separately estimated that about $3 billion of real GDP would not be recovered during 2019, while warning that all effects and their timing were subject to considerable uncertainty.

  2. documented

    Eleven days before the funding lapse, Trump said that if he did not obtain the border-security terms he wanted he would shut down the government, would take responsibility and would not blame congressional Democrats.

Summary and current status

CBO treated the permanent GDP reduction and the delayed federal spending as different effects. This record preserves them as separate, nonadditive measurements.

Shutdown ended; CBO retrospective estimates remain separate and nonadditive

People and organizations

Relationships in this file

Money trail

  1. otherCBO estimated federal discretionary spending delayedAbout $18 billion
    Estimated source
    Affected federal agencies
    Estimated recipient
    Federal employees and vendors awaiting discretionary compensation or purchases
    Measured subject
    Federal workers, contractors and private businesses
    estimated · 2019-01-28 · observedRead source record
    Calculation detailsPopulation Federal discretionary compensation and purchases delayed during the five-week partial shutdownPeriod 2018-12-22 to 2019-01-25Basis Use CBO's delayed-spending estimate as a timing measure. It is neither permanent economic loss nor an additional cost and must never be added to the $3 billion unrecovered GDP estimate.Limits Approximate modeled delay subject to uncertainty about affected appropriations, federal employee and contractor responses, and later agency spending. Most delayed activity was expected to resume.
  2. lossCBO estimated real GDP not recovered in 2019About $3 billion in 2019 dollars
    Loss or cost borne by
    U.S. economy, private businesses, federal contractors and workers
    estimated · 2019-01-28 · observedRead source record
    Calculation detailsPopulation Full-year 2019 real GDP compared with CBO's no-shutdown counterfactualPeriod 2019-01-01 to 2019-12-31Basis Use CBO's estimate of the portion of fourth-quarter 2018 and first-quarter 2019 output reductions that would not be recovered later in 2019. Keep it separate from the $18 billion spending delay and the temporary quarterly GDP effects.Limits Modeled counterfactual in 2019 dollars. CBO cited considerable uncertainty about affected discretionary spending and behavioral responses, and excluded harder-to-quantify indirect effects.