CBO's Estimates of the Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Effects of Public Law 119-21

Reporting cited here

1. documented

   On this specific PAYGO theory, the Medicare promise was kept through 2026: a potential automatic reduction was legislatively prevented. The underlying law's deficit effect remains real, but it is not an actual Medicare cut.

   Summary and discussion of 5- and 10-year scorecards

   The Medicare Promise Test — Audit finding · Cited analysis

2. documented

   CBO explained that the enacted law created a potential sequestration under statutory PAYGO; OMB, not CBO, would make the ultimate determination.

   Summary and discussion of 5- and 10-year scorecards

   The Medicare Promise Test — Outcome · Outcome