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Estimated Budgetary Effects of Public Law 119-21

Congressional Budget Office

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Reporting cited here

  1. documented

    The law kept the tax-cut promise but contradicted the platform's fiscal-sanity promise under both CBO measures: a $3.4 trillion conventional primary-deficit estimate and a later $4.2 trillion total-deficit estimate that includes debt-service and macroeconomic feedback. The two figures are alternative scopes and must not be added.

    Summary and total row

    Tax Cuts, Public Debt, Private Gain — Audit finding · Cited analysis

  2. documented

    CBO estimated a $3.4 trillion net increase in the unified budget deficit over 2025-2034, excluding macroeconomic and debt-service effects.

    Summary and total row

    Tax Cuts, Public Debt, Private Gain — Outcome · Outcome