Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030

Reporting cited here

1. documented

   The promised pause and realignment were implemented. The operational interruptions are documented, while projected mortality conveys a conditional global scale rather than observed deaths or an American casualty count.

   Summary findings and 2030 forecasting methods

   Foreign-Aid Pause and Program Interruptions — Audit finding · Cited analysis

2. reported

   A peer-reviewed forecast estimated additional deaths through 2030 if deep defunding persisted; it is a modeled counterfactual with wide uncertainty.

   Summary findings and 2030 forecasting methods

   Foreign-Aid Pause and Program Interruptions — Evidentiary limit · Evidentiary limit