One-Year Tariff Analysis: What We Got Right, What Changed, and What We Learned

This secondary source from The Budget Lab at Yale supports 3 claims across 3 ledger entries.

Claims supported by this source

analysisdocumented
Tariffs were imposed as promised, but available incidence evidence assigns part of the burden to U.S. households and conflicts with the affordability promise. The original IEEPA duties were invalidated, the temporary Section 122 duty expired, and the July 2026 Section 301 regime materially changed the exposure; its current household-dollar scale remains unresolved in the cited evidence.
Price-effect retrospective and forecast comparison
Tariffs as a Household Tax — Audit finding · Cited analysis
factreported
The Budget Lab modeled the tariffs then in effect as raising the short-run price level by 1.8 percent and reducing average household purchasing power by about $2,400 in 2025 dollars.
Price-effect retrospective and forecast comparison
Tariffs as a Household Tax — Outcome · Outcome
factreported
The Budget Lab's one-year retrospective estimated a 0.5 to 1.0 percent tariff price effect and explained why the observed effect was below its early projection.
Price-effect retrospective and forecast comparison
Tariffs as a Household Tax — Counterevidence · Counterevidence