One-Year Tariff Analysis: What We Got Right, What Changed, and What We Learned
Reporting cited here
- documented
Trump imposed the tariffs as promised, and the incidence evidence puts part of the bill on U.S. households, against the affordability promise. The original IEEPA duties were invalidated, the temporary Section 122 duty expired, and the July 2026 Section 301 regime changed the exposure materially. What that regime costs a household remains unresolved.
Price-effect retrospective and forecast comparisonTariffs as a Household Tax — Audit finding · Cited analysis
- reported
The Budget Lab modeled the tariffs then in effect as raising the short-run price level by 1.8 percent and reducing average household purchasing power by about $2,400 in 2025 dollars.
Price-effect retrospective and forecast comparisonTariffs as a Household Tax — Outcome · Outcome
- reported
The Budget Lab's one-year retrospective estimated a 0.5 to 1.0 percent tariff price effect and explained why the observed effect was below its early projection.
Price-effect retrospective and forecast comparisonTariffs as a Household Tax — Counterevidence · Counterevidence