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State of U.S. Tariffs: February 21, 2026

The Budget Lab at Yale

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Reporting cited here

  1. documented

    Trump imposed the tariffs as promised, and the incidence evidence puts part of the bill on U.S. households, against the affordability promise. The original IEEPA duties were invalidated, the temporary Section 122 duty expired, and the July 2026 Section 301 regime changed the exposure materially. What that regime costs a household remains unresolved.

    Key Takeaways 1-3; Average aggregate price impact

    Tariffs as a Household Tax — Audit finding · Cited analysis

  2. reported

    For the temporary policy in force after the ruling, the Budget Lab estimated an ultimate 0.5 to 0.6 percent price-level increase and a $600 to $800 average-household loss if the Section 122 tariff expired as scheduled.

    Key Takeaways 1-3; Average aggregate price impact

    Tariffs as a Household Tax — Outcome · Outcome