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Force and civilian harm

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  1. MilitarySpend estimates Iran campaign costs at $42.8 billion on September 13Attributed estimate; period and accounting scope stated in each measure3 sources
  2. Houthis capture U.S.-made armored vehicles around MokhaEquipment capture reported September 11; individual transfer histories unverified1 source
  3. Mokha's capture weakens interdiction and offers new maritime attack positionsAttributed operational assessment1 source
  4. Pentagon's May 2026 estimate put Iran war costs at $29 billion, excluding military constructionHistorical cost estimate through May 12, 2026; excludes military construction4 sources
  5. Brown estimates at least $4.7 billion for Venezuela, Caribbean and eastern Pacific operationsAttributed estimate; period and accounting scope stated in each measure2 sources
  6. UN Iran fact-finding mission identifies possible war crimes in civilian-object strikesConditional allegation by a UN fact-finding mission; not charges or an adjudicated finding3 sources
  7. Trump warns that Iran's civilization will die that nightDocumented statement; attributed legal assessment, not a completed attack1 source
  8. Trump threatens Iranian power plants with a 48-hour ultimatumDocumented threat; legal assessment attributed to Amnesty International1 source
  9. Minab school attack: Human Rights Watch calls for war-crime investigationHuman Rights Watch called for a war-crime investigation6 sources
  10. Brown estimates $9.65–12.07 billion for Yemen and wider Middle East operations in 2023–2025Attributed estimate; period and accounting scope stated in each measure2 sources
  11. Brown records $21.7 billion in US military aid to Israel across October 2023–September 2025Attributed estimate; period and accounting scope stated in each measure2 sources
  12. Costs of War estimates a $2.04–$2.26 billion linked U.S. operation and defense costRetrospective cost estimate2 sources
  13. U.S. Article 51 defense of Operation Midnight Hammer draws sustained legal challengeContested legal analysis; no adjudication2 sources
  14. IHL requires military-objective, distinction, proportionality, and precaution analysisDistinction, proportionality, and precaution rules govern the June 22 strikes4 sources
  15. Nuclear-site strikes trigger dangerous-forces and environmental-risk scrutinyIAEA reported no increased off-site radiation June 22; special-protection scope remains disputed3 sources
  16. Trump ordered U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear sitesCompleted use of force; official assessment recorded no civilian casualties.3 sources
  17. Airwars records civilian harm in Thaqban area, Bani al-Harith DistrictSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  18. Airwars records civilian harm in 14th of October neighbourhood, Al Sab’een district, SanaaSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  19. Airwars records civilian harm in Bir Zaid neighbourhood, Al-Jarf area, SanaaSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  20. Airwars records civilian harm in Al-Nahda neighbourhood, SanaaSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  21. Airwars records civilian harm in Bani MatarSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  22. Airwars records civilian harm in Majel Ad-Damna Cemetery, Al-Safiyah District, SanaaSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  23. Human Rights Watch assesses April 17 Ras Isa port strikes as an apparent war crimeSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  24. Airwars records civilian harm in Al-Nahda neighbourhood, Al-Thawra district, SanaaSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  25. Airwars records civilian harm in Al-Nahda neighbourhood, SanaaSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  26. Airwars records civilian harm in Al-Sawari Ceramics Factory, Matnah, Bani Matar DistrictSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  27. Airwars records civilian harm in Vicinity of Presidential House, Al-Sab’een district, SanaaSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  28. Airwars records civilian harm in Amin Muqbel, Al-Hawek districtSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  29. Airwars records civilian harm in DhamarSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  30. Airwars records civilian harm in HafsinSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  31. Airwars records civilian harm in Telecommunication network, Jabal NamahSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  32. Airwars records civilian harm in Al-Mansouriyah DistrictSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  33. Airwars records civilian harm in Al-Qabil, Jadr area, Bani Al-Harith districtSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  34. Airwars records civilian harm in Bani Qais DistrictSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  35. Airwars records civilian harm in Sarf area, Bani Hashish districtSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  36. Airwars records civilian harm in Vicinity of SadaaSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  37. Airwars records civilian harm in Khawlan DistrictSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  38. Airwars records civilian harm in Al-Rasoul Al-Aazam Hospital for Cancer Tumors, SadaaSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  39. Airwars records civilian harm in Vicinity of Abu Bakr Al-Siddiq School, Ma'in District, SanaaSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  40. Airwars records civilian harm in Al-Thawra neighbourhood, SanaaSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  41. Airwars records civilian harm in Al-Sahqeen districtSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  42. Airwars records civilian harm in Attan neighborhood, Sana'aSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  43. Airwars records civilian harm in Al-Jaraf neighborhood, Al-Shu’ub district, Sana'aSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence2 sources
  44. Airwars records civilian harm in Qahza area, SadaaSource-assessed incident; attribution and count stated in evidence3 sources
  45. Trump's Yemen campaign left 153 civilians dead in three Pentagon-confirmed incidentsThree incidents assessed; 15 additional reports remained under review at the 2026 cutoff.3 sources
  46. Trump proposed U.S. ownership of Gaza, permanent Palestinian removal, and left troops on the tableTrump announced the proposal February 4, 2025; U.N. experts issued their legal assessment February 112 sources
  47. Trump would not rule out military force to take Greenland and the Panama CanalDocumented threat statement; not classified here as an executed use of force.1 source
  48. Pentagon review of the 2019 Baghuz strike reports no law-of-war violation and reporting failuresReview completed under the subsequent administration; underlying strike occurred in 20192 sources
  49. U.N. working group called Trump's Blackwater pardons an affront to justiceU.N. Working Group submitted its assessment on July 2, 20212 sources
  50. Trump's Portland deployment was lawful but badly planned, DHS's watchdog foundDHS OIG found legal authority but identified planning, training, equipment, and identification failures.1 source
  51. UN mandate-holder and independent legal analysis dispute the Soleimani strike's legal basisNon-adjudicative legal analysis2 sources
  52. Federal officers cleared Lafayette Park before Trump walked to St. John's ChurchThe inspector general found the fence plan predated the walk and did not assess individual uses of force.1 source
  53. Trump threatened to deploy the United States military against unrest in American citiesExplicit conditional threat; the cited statement did not itself execute an Insurrection Act deployment.1 source
  54. Iran and North Korea are named in four reviewed force threats from 2017 to 2020Retrospective count through the last statement in the reviewed set4 sources
  55. Trump ordered the Navy to destroy Iranian gunboats that harassed United States shipsTrump issued the conditional Navy direction on April 22, 20201 source
  56. Trump lifted geographic limits on United States anti-personnel landmine useTrump administration authorized combatant-command landmine exceptions on January 31, 20201 source
  57. Trump threatened Iranian cultural sites; his defense secretary publicly drew the legal lineTrump issued the threat January 4, 2020; Esper stated the law-of-armed-conflict position January 62 sources
  58. The Trump-directed Baghdad strike kills Qasem SoleimaniSoleimani was killed in the January 3, 2020 Baghdad strike2 sources
  59. Trump directs the U.S. strike targeting Qasem SoleimaniTrump directed the Baghdad strike carried out on January 3, 20201 source
  60. Trump ordered the Baghdad strike that killed Soleimani; a UN expert found the stated legal basis wantingStrike completed; UN expert analysis remains non-adjudicative.2 sources
  61. American armored vehicles reached Yemen during an arms-diversion investigationCNN investigation published; coalition disputed unauthorized transfers2 sources
  62. Baghdadi detonates a vest during the raid, killing himself and two childrenBaghdadi and two children died during the October 26, 2019 raid2 sources
  63. Trump directed the Syria raid that killed ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-BaghdadiDocumented cross-border use of force; no civilian-harm finding is asserted here.1 source
  64. Trump approves the raid plan targeting Abu Bakr al-BaghdadiTrump approved the raid plan on October 25, 2019; the operation began the next day2 sources
  65. Amnesty documents unlawful attacks and killings in Turkey's northeast Syria offensiveWatchdog findings; no individual adjudication1 source
  66. White House announces a U.S. pullback after Trump's call with ErdoganWhite House announced the pullback October 6, 2019; Turkey attacked October 92 sources
  67. After retrial, Slatten received life without parole for first-degree murderLife sentence later ended through full presidential pardon2 sources
  68. Trump vetoed Congress's direction to end United States support affecting the Yemen warThe veto is documented; Congress did not override it.1 source
  69. Amnesty linked five United States Somalia strikes to 14 civilian deaths and eight injuriesAdvocacy-group findings, not formal charges or an adjudicated war-crime judgment.2 sources
  70. Trump kept military force explicitly on the table against VenezuelaTrump kept a military option open against Venezuela on March 19, 20191 source
  71. Baghuz strike: NGO war-crime assessment and contrary military reviewAttributed NGO assessment; military review disputed illegality3 sources
  72. Trump revoked the annual public-report rule for strikes outside active hostilitiesThe revocation is documented; separate statutory reporting duties were unaffected.1 source
  73. Trump sent about 5,800 active-duty troops toward the southwest borderTrump said about 5,800 troops were moving to the southwest border on October 31, 20181 source
  74. Trump ordered coordinated United States, British, and French strikes in SyriaDocumented cross-border use of force; no adjudicated aggression finding is asserted.1 source
  75. Trump directed National Guard support to the southwest borderThe memorandum authorized support subject to governors and applicable law.1 source
  76. AFRICOM revises El Burr strike assessment to three civilian deathsOfficial civilian-harm assessment revised after civil-society evidence2 sources
  77. Trump's Afghanistan strategy added approximately 3,500 United States troopsThe deployment figure was formally reported to Congress in 2017.1 source
  78. Trump threatened to “totally destroy” North Korea from the United Nations podiumTrump issued the conditional ‘totally destroy’ threat on September 19, 20171 source
  79. Trump threatened North Korea with “fire and fury”Trump issued the conditional ‘fire and fury’ threat on August 8, 20171 source
  80. Military inquiry attributes Mosul civilian deaths to secondary explosives triggered by a coalition strikeArmy investigated its own strike and published the findings2 sources
  81. The United States used the GBU-43 “Mother of All Bombs” under TrumpDocumented use of force; the cited source reported precautions and made no civilian-harm finding.1 source
  82. Trump ordered 59 cruise missiles fired at Syria's Shayrat airfieldDocumented cross-border use of force; no adjudicated aggression finding is asserted.1 source
  83. Trump expanded strike latitude by designating part of Somalia an area of active hostilitiesThe designation was reported by Amnesty; it is not itself a civilian-harm or war-crime finding.1 source
  84. UN inquiry identifies al-Jinah mosque as a protected object struck by US forcesCommission finding of an IHL precautions violation, not a criminal judgment2 sources
  85. Amnesty documents extrajudicial killings and disproportionate harm to poor people under DuterteAmnesty reported 33 cases after 110 interviews on January 31, 20171 source
  86. A Trump-approved Yemen raid killed at least 14 civilians, Human Rights Watch reportedReported civilian harm; Human Rights Watch requested investigation, not an adjudicated war-crime finding.2 sources
  87. Jury convicted four Blackwater contractors for the Nisur Square shootingConvicted October 22, 2014; pardoned December 22, 20203 sources