Tiny Red HandsBack to selected case

Paying to Fire and Rehire

17

Paying to Fire and Rehire

contradicted
Promised
Trump promised to cut trillions of dollars in wasteful federal spending with Elon Musk's help.Open cited record · 1 source
The record
OPM offered eligible federal employees deferred resignation, with pay and benefits through September 30, 2025 and generally no expected work requirement during the deferral period.Open cited record · 1 sourceCBS reported the Partnership for Public Service's rough estimate that DOGE-related paid leave, lost productivity, and firing and rehiring would cost about $135 billion in fiscal 2025.Open cited record · 3 sources
Who paid
Associated Press reported that GSA asked hundreds of employees to return after months on paid leave, an agency-specific example of reversal and paid nonwork time.Open cited record
  • Federal agencies implementing workforce reductions
  • Federal employees separated, placed on leave, or later rehired
  • U.S. taxpayers
Audit finding
contradicted

Paid leave, back pay, rehiring, and lost productivity are documented cost mechanisms that contradict a pure-savings account of the workforce campaign; the $135 billion estimate is useful for scale only with its modeling limits attached.

Causal strength: modeled

Evidence chronology

  1. promisedocumented

    Trump promised to cut trillions of dollars in wasteful federal spending with Elon Musk's help.

    Open underlying ledger entry
  2. actiondocumented

    OPM offered eligible federal employees deferred resignation, with pay and benefits through September 30, 2025 and generally no expected work requirement during the deferral period.

    Open underlying ledger entry
  3. outcomereported

    CBS reported the Partnership for Public Service's rough estimate that DOGE-related paid leave, lost productivity, and firing and rehiring would cost about $135 billion in fiscal 2025.

    Open underlying ledger entry
  4. affected groupreported

    Associated Press reported that GSA asked hundreds of employees to return after months on paid leave, an agency-specific example of reversal and paid nonwork time.

    Open underlying ledger entry
  5. administration responsereported

    GSA said it had made staffing adjustments in the best interest of the taxpayer and that workforce decisions continued to evolve.

    Open underlying ledger entry
  6. administration responsereported

    A White House spokesman rejected the Partnership analysis as an illegitimate effort to undermine DOGE's efficiency claims but did not provide a component-by-component alternative estimate in the cited report.

    Open underlying ledger entry

Money calculations

  1. public costModeled fiscal-2025 cost of DOGE workforce disruptionroughly $135 billion
    estimated · 2025-04-28 · projected · central scenarioPopulation Federal agencies implementing workforce reductions; Federal employees separated, placed on leave, or later rehired; U.S. taxpayersPeriod 2024-10-01 to 2025-09-30Projection horizon 2025-09-30Basis Partnership for Public Service started from approximately $270 billion in annual federal workforce compensation and modeled paid leave, lost productivity, and firing-and-rehiring costs; CBS reported the model and components.Limits Not a government audit or booked outlay total. The public article does not expose a reproducible component table, and incomplete documentation and behavioral assumptions make the estimate high-uncertainty.Open cited evidence

Responses, contrary evidence, and limitations

  • administration response

    GSA said it had made staffing adjustments in the best interest of the taxpayer and that workforce decisions continued to evolve.

  • administration response

    A White House spokesman rejected the Partnership analysis as an illegitimate effort to undermine DOGE's efficiency claims but did not provide a component-by-component alternative estimate in the cited report.