Tiny Red HandsOpen ledger

America First Audit

Trump sold “America First.” This record traces how public money, power, and risk moved toward family businesses, donors, favored firms, and foreign governments—and what workers, ranchers, retirees, patients, veterans, and small investors were left to absorb.

Thesis evidence

Reversal ledger

Ordered by event date; spacing does not represent elapsed time.

11

Tariffs as a Household Tax

contradicted
Promised
The platform promised tariffs on foreign-made goods while lowering taxes for American workers and families and making America affordable.Open cited record · 1 source
The record
Trump ordered a 10 percent baseline tariff on imports and additional country-specific rates under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.Open cited record · 1 sourceThe Budget Lab modeled the tariffs then in effect as raising the short-run price level by 1.8 percent and reducing average household purchasing power by about $2,400 in 2025 dollars.Open cited record · 2 sourcesThe Supreme Court held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the President to impose tariffs, affirming the judgment against the challenged IEEPA tariff program.Open cited record · 1 sourceAfter the ruling, Trump imposed a temporary global import duty under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, replacing the invalidated IEEPA baseline regime with a time-limited tariff.Open cited record · 1 sourceFor the temporary policy in force after the ruling, the Budget Lab estimated an ultimate 0.5 to 0.6 percent price-level increase and a $600 to $800 average-household loss if the Section 122 tariff expired as scheduled.Open cited record · 1 sourceAt Trump's direction, USTR imposed Section 301 duties of 10 percent or 12.5 percent on covered products from 60 economies, effective as the temporary Section 122 duty expired on July 24.Open cited record · 1 source
Who gained
  • U.S. producers modeled to gain output in protected sectors
  • U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Who paid
  • U.S. importers
  • U.S. households
  • U.S. importers
  • U.S. households
Audit finding
contradicted

Tariffs were imposed as promised, but available incidence evidence assigns part of the burden to U.S. households and conflicts with the affordability promise. The original IEEPA duties were invalidated, the temporary Section 122 duty expired, and the July 2026 Section 301 regime materially changed the exposure; its current household-dollar scale remains unresolved in the cited evidence.

Causal strength: modeled

Case register

50 matching cases
Affected population
Beneficiary type
Geography
Industry
Outcome
Policy mechanism
Promise domain
  1. 40The Russian Money Testcontradicted
  2. 27Trump University's Promise and Settlementunresolved
  3. 24Taxpayers at Trump Propertiescontradicted
  4. 28The Paint Spot Judgmentcontradicted
  5. 26The Trump Foundation Court Recordpartly-kept
  6. 29Election-Defense Solicitations and Recurring Donationscontradicted
  7. 22PPP Loans at Trump and Kushner Propertiesunresolved
  8. 44American Arms, Gaza Outcomesunresolved
  9. 45Peace Through Threatspartly-kept
  10. 31TRUMP Token Fees, Withdrawals and Reported Royaltiesunresolved
  11. 32The MELANIA Pre-Announcement Wallet Patternunresolved
  12. 20Foreign-Aid Pause and Program Interruptionskept
  13. 46Clemency for January 6 Defendantscontradicted
  14. 12The Interest-Rate Blame Gamepartly-kept
  15. 25Firing the Inspectors Generalcontradicted
  16. 17Paying to Fire and Rehirecontradicted
  17. 43The Israel Aid and Arms Ledgerpartly-kept
  18. 23Musk's DOGE Role and Existing Federal Contractsunresolved
  19. 50King in All but Namecontradicted
  20. 34Justin Sun, World Liberty Financial and the SEC Casepartly-kept
  21. 08Retirement Service by Chainsawpartly-kept
  22. 18The Social Security Counter-Window Testunresolved
  23. 47Due Process Under the Deportation Machinecontradicted
  24. 48Rule by Decreecontradicted
  25. 14Jobs Promised, Worker Protections Cutcontradicted
  26. 11Tariffs as a Household Taxcontradicted
  27. 37Saudi Money Around the Presidencycontradicted
  28. 38The Gulf Development Mapcontradicted
  29. 33Foreign Capital Through USD1unresolved
  30. 21OPM's One-Week Workday Noticeunresolved
  31. 49Synthetic Truth and Holy Self-Imageunresolved
  32. 36The Qatar Aircraft Ledgerunresolved
  33. 41The Iran Reversalreversed
  34. 04Deportation Meets Harvestpartly-kept
  35. 06The Rural Medicaid Squeezecontradicted
  36. 07The Medicare Promise Testkept
  37. 10Hunger Behind the Savings Claimcontradicted
  38. 13Tax Cuts, Public Debt, Private Gainpartly-kept
  39. 05The Rural Development Swapunresolved
  40. 15The Retirement Alternatives Testunresolved
  41. 30Fraud Liability Upheld, Monetary Penalty Vacatedcontradicted
  42. 35The DJT Bagholder Testpartly-kept
  43. 02Argentina Firstunresolved
  44. 03Tariff Whiplash and Taxpayer Farm Bailoutspartly-kept
  45. 09Veterans as a Private Marketunresolved
  46. 01Argentina Beefunresolved
  47. 42The Iran War Balance Sheetreversed
  48. 19DOGE Access to Social Security Personal Datapartly-kept
  49. 39Who Won from Russia Sanctions Relief?unresolved
  50. 16The Savings That Wouldn't Auditcontradicted