Tiny Red HandsBack

Tariffs as a Household Tax — Outcome

Entities and roles

Money trail

  1. lossSuperseded February 2026 purchasing-power scenario per average household$600-$800 per average household in the superseded Section 122 scenario
    Loss or cost borne by
    U.S. households
    projected · 2026-02-21 · projected · central scenarioPopulation U.S. Customs and Border Protection; U.S. importers; U.S. households; U.S. producers modeled to gain output in protected sectorsPeriod 2026-02-20 to 2026-07-20Projection horizon 2026-07-20Basis Budget Lab modeled post-substitution and pre-substitution consumer-price effects for the temporary Section 122 tariff configuration, assuming that duty expired after 150 days.Limits Scenario range, not an observed bill or an estimate for the Section 301 duties effective July 24, 2026.Open cited evidence

Claims and evidence

  1. factreported

    For the temporary policy in force after the ruling, the Budget Lab estimated an ultimate 0.5 to 0.6 percent price-level increase and a $600 to $800 average-household loss if the Section 122 tariff expired as scheduled.