Economic and Fiscal Effects of the February 2025 Proposed Tariffs on China
Reporting cited here
- estimate
The Budget Lab modeled Trump's 10% tariff on Chinese imports as a 0.14% short-run price increase and an average $223 annual loss of household purchasing power, with a disproportionate income-share burden on lower-income households; importers legally pay the tariff into federal customs revenue, and the model separately estimated about $400 billion in conventional federal revenue over ten years before dynamic effects, with no personal recipient or beneficiary inferred.
Summary and short-run distributional effectsYale models household and Treasury effects of Trump's 10% China tariff · Modeled estimate, not observed loss